A study of Days on Market.

With the real estate market stabilizing here in Austin, I have been curious which neighborhoods (if any) have slowed down. Have some slowed down more than others? Have any sped up?

Since seller expectations and buyer expectations are still unpredictable, I decided not to consider list price vs sale price data in my research. Instead, I chose to analyze neighborhoods by average days on market, or DOM.

Many of yall remember the not-too-long-ago days of properties listing on Thursday or Friday with a Sunday night or Monday noon offer deadline - typically an average of only 3-7 days across Austin. Now, we’re seeing properties sit on the market for much longer, causing more inventory, more competition, and a newly buyer’s market.

Days on market only takes into account the number of days the property is actively listed - no hold days, no escrow days, no withdrawn days. So when I say DOM decreased, that would be a good thing! Less DOM means less time on the market before finding a buyer. And when I say DOM increased, that would be a bummer. More DOM means more time on market before finding a buyer.

All of the data collected is from the Austin Board of Realtors (ABOR) sold data. To decrease variables, I only collected single family home data in the City of Austin. There are some discrepancies with the data, as no agent input is perfect! If you’d like more details on these, please scroll to the very bottom of this post.

I say ‘neighborhoods’ above, but ABOR actually categorizes Austin into Multiple Listing Service (MLS) areas. Each Area is drawn based on similar characteristics. For example, Area UT is a section around the University of Texas because it functions as its own little ecosystem of condos, student housing, investment, etc. Other areas might be drawn based on high school, topography, or major highways. Below, a map of these areas designated by ABOR.

I was pleasantly surprised to see that some areas did improve! And some areas, like Area 2, W, 5 and 3, barely changed at all YOY. These ‘barely changed’ areas would be considered the safest investment areas, in my opinion.

5 Neighborhoods Slowing Down:

1. From 49 average DOM in Q4 2022, to an 87 DOM average this Fall, area SC has experienced the biggest slow down in the City of Austin. A 44% increase to average days on market. Area SC is in south-east Austin, bordered roughly by Onion Creek, I-35, McKinney Falls Pkwy and 1327.

2. Area 7 also experienced a 44% slow down, but takes position two because its 90-day average is 67 DOM. This is up from only 38 DOM in Q4 2022. Area 7 includes Zilker Park and Barton Hills neighborhoods, bordered by Mopac to the northwest and South Lamar to the southeast.

3. MLS area 3E average DOM has an increased 40%. While it’s ranked with these five, it’s actually still performing OK with a 90-day average of 51 DOM. In Q4 the average was only 30 DOM. Area 3E includes neighborhoods like Trinity Crossing and Imperial Valley. It’s bordered to the west by 183, the north by 290 and the south by MLK.

4. Spot four goes to area 8E, with a 39% average DOM increase . Area 8E is Westlake and Rollingwood neighborhoods, bordered to the west by 360 and the east by Lake Austin.

5. Lastly, it’s been a bummer year for area 1B too. Area 1B experienced a slight relief during the spring/summer seasonal high, but its 90-day average is 85 DOM. Area 1B is quite large, and includes Tarrytown, Highland Park West, Mt. Bonnell, Bryker Woods, Enfield and Clarksville. It’s an L-shaped area bordered roughly by N Lamar and 35th streets to the east, Mopac to 2222 to the north and then Lake Austin to the south.

5 Austin Neighborhoods Speeding Up!

I certainly didn’t think there would be neighborhoods selling faster in Austin, but there are! With decreases in avg DOM, these neighborhoods are selling faster than this time last year, and overall over the last 365 days.

1. Area 5E has had quarter-over-quarter DOM declines since Fall 2022. Over the last year, there’s been a 157% decrease in days on market! Area 5E is a huge area just north of the airport, bordered by 183 to the west, 71 to the south and MLK to the north. And yes, this area includes the Tesla factory, Hornsby Bend, Bergstrom, and more. Still a seller’s market over here! The 90-day average is 24 DOM.

2. Registering an average DOM of 63 Q4 2022, and only 41 DOM within the last 90 days, area 2N takes position two! Area 2N is bordered by Metric Blvd, Parmer Ln, I-35 and 183 - “North Austin” or “North Lamar” neighborhoods.

3. Area N comes in at 45% decrease in days on market. In Q4 2022, the average DOM was 43 days, and the 90-day average is just 30 days! Area N includes the sliver of properties between Mopac, 45, I-35, and Parmer (with a tiny arm out to the Northwood subdivision). Basically, Wells Branch.

4. Average DOM in area RRW has decreased from 48 DOM Q4 2022 to 33 DOM Q3 2023 - a 44% decrease. RRW includes Avery Ranch West and bits of Brushy Creek and Cat Hallow. It’s bordered to the west by Parmer, the north by Brushy Creek RD, the east by 620/O’Connor, and the south by 45.

5. Area 4 average DOM also decreased 44%, but the 90-day average is 40 days to RRW’s 33 days. Area 4 includes neighborhoods like Brentwood Baja, Triangle, Rosedale and Allandale South. It’s bordered to the west by Mopac, north by 2222, east by I-35 and south by 38th ST.

Why are neighborhoods speeding up or slowing down? Great question. I can point the slow downs in some of Austin’s most expensive and lease expensive neighborhoods to rising interest rates. I won’t go into major detail here, because there are so many articles out about this right now. Reach out to me directly for my take, or I recommend asking your preferred lender where she/he thinks rates are going from here!

The speed up areas can most likely be contributed to a strong job market. Tesla, The Domain, UT and Tech Ridge remain strong draws to Austin’s economy.

Check out the chart below to see all of the City of Austin MLS areas average DOM broken down by 90-day increments over the last year. This data was pulled on October 26, 2023.

Curious how Austin compares to its suburbs? I was too. For fun, I pulled the 365-day average days on market for all ABOR MLS areas.

These 5 areas had the lowest average DOM over the last year:

EL - 36 days
SSW - 36 days
1N - 37 days
1A - 38 days
10S - 39 days

These 5 areas had the highest average DOM over the last year:

BW - 105 days
LN - 78 days
SC - 69 days
HD - 63 days
LS - 63 days

Data Notes and Discrepancies

As previously noted, all data was pulled from the Austin Board of Realtors. Almost 100% of this data was input by human agents. Sometimes a property is placed in the wrong area, and is then recorded in the wrong place. By taking the average DOM for each area, most errors do not move the data point much, if at all. According to the Austin Board of Realtors, there were 8,225 single family home sales in the City of “Austin” recorded on the MLS between October 26, 2022 and October 26, 2023.

Some areas like Plugerville and Cedar Park include Travis County properties in the City of Austin. However, the properties in these city-based areas are mostly registered in their respective cities as suburbs of Austin. Any area with less than 75 single family sales over the last year was removed from the data set. This included areas: 9, CLS, HH, DT, MA, PF, SE and UT. If you are curious about one of these areas, please contact me! I’d be happy to pull specific data for your area!

I broke down DOM data by the fiscal quarter calendar since we’re nearing the end of Q3 (August 2023-October 2023). However, since I pulled data 365 days from October 26th the quarters are not perfect. Most agents consider the ‘start’ of our season to be in the summer months, May-July (Q2). So in comparing percent change, I’m comparing data from the seasonally ‘down market’ of Q4 2022 to the seasonally ‘down-trending’ market of Q3. In an average year, Q4 should have the highest DOM and Q2 should have the lowest DOM, for example.

There are dozens of metrics to study from ABOR, and many opinions to glean from such research. I chose Days on Market Average because it seemed to answer my questions best. My findings do not indicate whether a neighborhood is more popular than another, nor do they indicate which neighborhoods are seeing greater price decreases than another. Any trends indicated in this article are my best interpretation of the data, but still my opinion. If you’re looking for investment advice, please contact me directly.

Last note: All this data is based on past history - past historical data. If you’re curious about active, present data for your neighborhood or subdivision, send me an email! An active market analysis would include fresh statistics and data points that are not considered in this Days on Market study.